Good News for Barack Obama in WaPo ABC News Poll

There is some really great news for the Obama campaign in today's Washington Post / ABC News Poll. Yes, even despite the not so very thrilling headline in the WaPo - "Poll Finds Independent Voters Split Between McCain, Obama", the numbers inside the poll itself tell a much different story.

OK, I admit, I'm a bit of a geek. And a Pol. So what does a geek and a Pol do when we can get our hands on a poll? We dig deep to see what the thing really has to say. The horse race among all those polled has Obama up 6 at 48 to 42. Among registered voters, its closer at 49 to 45. Those numbers are certainly better for Obama than McCain, but they aren't really anything to write home about. Particularly as the WaPo notes:

At this point four years ago, Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry held identical leads over President Bush among all adults and among registered voters.

We all remember how that turned out. Polls really are just snapshots in time. And the election is still a relatively long way away.

So what's the really good news for the Obama campaign in this poll? The WaPo / ABC News poll also asked this question:

Would you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else?

For Barack Obama, fully 72% of his voters said they were definitely voting for Obama. But 69% of McCain's voters said the same about him. But here it is: Out of the 31% of McCains' voters who could possibly change their minds, 17%, nearly 1 in 5, say there is a GOOD chance of changing their mind. The comparable number for Obama is only 7%, or less than one in 10.

The reason this is such good news is that political operatives are always looking for those voters who are persuadable. That's the real point at which all that advertising money being spent is aimed. Is to find and convince those people who are persuadable to make up their mind in favor of our candidate.

That 10 point spread in persuadables in favor of Obama is a very happy place for a campaign to be.

I've Been

Busy; otherwise occupied; distracted; suffering writers block; disaffected;

All of the above are true. I have been busy. Working on some local issues (it's one of the things I do.) I've also been working on some other things that have statewide impact. I may be doing that again soon.

All of that has kept me somewhat otherwise occupied. I've been distracted by some personal things going on in my life. Some of them are somewhat , but not fully, resolved now. That's all part of life, and we are all distracted by things from time to time.

I've been somewhat disaffected, which may have contributed something to the idea of writers block. The long protracted primary season did not do a lot to inspire me. This is particularly true because, even though I agree it was right to let it play out, the ultimate outcome had been a foregone conclusion for quite a while. I had written about a year ago admonishing folks "Don't Get Too Attached to Your Candidates". And I could see attitudes hardening on both sides. I still believe, in the end, we will mostly be united behind our nominee. But I did not really want to play in that game in the meanwhile.

Also, the entire flap about seating of the Florida delegation was something I believed would get worked out in the end. And it appears that it has.

With those things settled and the general election campaign now finally upon us, I am ready to get back in the game. There are some issues I am passionate about. You'll see me writing on them from time to time. The idea of electing a Democrat President, and electing more Democrats in Congress and in our state legislature is of utmost importance to me. I'll be writing about that too.

So, I've been, not writing here all that much. But I feel that's about to change.

Dems: Don't Team Up With the Forces of Ego

The budget battle in the Florida Senate gave us some strange bedfellows today. We had the majority of Senate Democrats teaming up with the forces of ego.

From the Orlando Sentinel:

Republican Sens. Alex Villalobos of Miami, Charlie Dean of Inverness, and Paula Dockery of Lakeland are joining with Democrats today to try and steer away millions of dollars intended to buy the 61-mile rail line from CSX Corp. for commuter rail.

I blogged about Sen. Dockery's possible motivation to go after the Central Florida Commuter Rail Project last month:

The state portion of the funding deal was negotiated with CSX while Jeb Bush was still governor. This is the same Jeb Bush who led the charge to get the bullet train proposal repealed from the Florida Constitution. This is where the forces of ego enter. The main proponent of the bullet train initiative was C.C. "Doc" Dockery of Lakeland. Dockery is married to State Sen. Paula Dockery, R-Lakeland, an opponent of the Orlando commuter rail project and the CSX proposal.

Sens. Alex Villalobos has his own reason enough to take a shot at the deal that Jeb did:

In Florida's meanest and most expensive state Senate race, Miami Sen. Alex Villalobos was reelected Tuesday night, overcoming the millions spent by third-party attack groups and the ire of Gov. Jeb Bush, who helped run a candidate against the moderate Republican.

So while it may be great fun to help the Republicans eat their young, this was not a very good vehicle to ride. The indirect target of the forces of ego was the Central Florida Commuter Rail Project. Opponents have painted the deal as a giant corporate welfare boondoggle - an easy target in this tight budget year.

But the Central Florida Commuter Rail Project in reality is a desperately needed green transportation solution for the folks in Central Florida.

There is a lot of controversy over the Central Florida Commuter Rail Project. However, there should be no controversy whatsoever that commuter rail transit is a progressive idea.

First of all, rail transportation is actually a green industry. Even our going green Governor, Charlie Crist, gets it right on his Florida Performs scorecard when he says:

Florida is also committed to planning for the future and to conserving energy by promoting the use of public transportation.

As much fun as it is to help the Republicans tear themselves apart, it can't really be very good politics to let the Republicans get to the left of the Dems on the environment now, can it?

Rail transportation is 3 times more fuel efficient than motor vehicles. On top of the fuel efficiency advantage, the EPA and the rail transportation industry continue to work together on reducing emissions from trains. Compare this to the auto industry's ongoing efforts to fight the CAFE standards.

Speaking of autos, if we are ever going to get people out of their cars, we are going to have to give them viable public transit options. Commuter rail is just such an option.

Finally, Democrats rightfully criticized the Republicans for raiding the affordable housing and other trust funds in previous years to make up budget shortfalls. Progressives pretty much give up the moral high ground on that front teaming up with the forces of ego to rob the transportation trust fund. That's not a progressive idea.

The good news is that this budget amendment failed. But progressives need to stick to their progressive values. Commuter rail is a progressive idea whose time has long since come for Florida. Let's not blow this chance to get this commuter rail project done. If this doesn't happen, Washington may not fund another like it for a generation.

FL-24 candidate Clint Curtis endorses Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq

As you know, a full-bore effort has commenced in the Florida blogosphere to introduce Democratic politicians and candidates to the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq. This comprehensive plan was spearheaded by Darcy Burner, Democratic candidate for Washington State's 8th District, and has gained national praise and attention, as well as a large number of additional endorsees.

I'm very pleased to announce that Clint Curtis, Democratic candidate for FL-24, is the first in the district to add his name as an endorsee. Even better, he did it before the Florida bloggers began their campaign! I've known Clint since 2006 when he first challenged Tom Feeney for the FL-24 seat and have supported him ever since. In addition, I've done a little bit of volunteer work for his campaign, primarily writing and commenting about him on blogs and telling everyone I meet why I think he's the best candidate for this seat. A few weeks ago, I emailed Clint about the Responsible Plan and asked him to carefully review it and consider an endorsement. He responded only a few days later to express his support.

Clint is extremely busy with fundraising, attending meetings of local Democratic clubs (including mine, the Five Cities Democratic Club), attending hearings on issues of great importance to the district (such as NASA's proposed new launch pad), and numerous other campaign-related activities. Yet, he's always been extremely quick to respond to my questions and suggestions. He's very much the type of person I'd want to represent me and all the residents of FL-24.

Kudos to Clint for his smart decision! If you are able, please consider a contribution to his campaign.

Clint Curtis for Congress
Clint's blog
Clint's ActBlue page
FL-24 Race Tracker Wiki

This post approved by ClintP, unofficial campaign mascot.

Welcoming Florida Speaks

This is just a very quick post to welcome Florida Speaks to the Florida blogosphere. This is Kenneth Quinell's new blog on national, international and other issues of interest to Florida Progressives.

Kenneth is the President of the Florida Democratic Party Netroots Coalition and the blogfather of the the Florida Progressive Coalition.

Welcome, Florida Speaks.

FL-24: Clint Curtis' Statement on Proposed NASA Launch Site and Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge

[Hello! pattyp here, posting on behalf of Clint Curtis, Democratic candidate for the FL-24 district. I hope you will read and comment on Clint's statement on the proposed KSC launch pad and the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge. Clint will check in to the Daily Kos version of this diary during the day and respond to your comments. The photos in this diary were taken by me on a kayaking excursion at Merritt Island last summer. It's a beautiful place.]


Dear Friends,

As many of you know, one of my core issues is the preservation and empowerment of NASA, which I believe is not only healthy for Florida but the nation and the world. NASA represents everything that's great about the US - the spirit of discovery, the can-do, against-all-odds spirit that put us on the moon and beyond. But I am also concerned with protecting and preserving the incredible beauty of the great state of Florida.



I recently attended the NASA public hearings concerning the new Commercial Vertical Launch Complex proposal for Kennedy Space Center (KSC.) First and foremost, I want to point out that NASA is not the enemy here. NASA should be commended for its efforts to gain public input and also for its long record of working with community leaders and environmental interests over the years. That relationship has made Florida’s Space Coast what it is today: a truly beautiful place to live and one that adds greatly to our quality of life.



The Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge and the Canaveral National Seashore (Playalinda Beach) not only provide a significant source of revenue to the community with their ability to attract tourists, they are both premier natural preserves with unparalleled natural beauty. The Wildlife Refuge should not be placed in the debatable plan for apportioned commercial development but should remain intact in its natural state for the enjoyment of successive generations.



Many at the public hearings were community leaders, business owners, and environmentalists who voiced opposition to the site #2 proposal and I want to echo that sentiment. Possible alternatives for the site #2 proposal might be converting abandoned Air Force launch sites or the refurbishing of unused launch sites at KSC. It just makes better sense to use existing facilities and infrastructure, such as roads and rail access, as well as the consideration of costs for this proposed project.

The resolution process for this complex issue should be one where all parties - governmental, environmental, and private - are involved in a collaborative effort to find a solution that fits the needs of all. The resolution of this issue is far too important to those involved to be handled in a routine, arbitrary political manner. With the possible loss of nearly 3,000 jobs due to the shuttle conversion, timing of this proposed project and its outcome is extremely important.



I would also like to point out that this is an issue which, I feel, demands the involvement of our elected congressional leaders. I did not see either Congressmen Dave Weldon or Tom Feeney, nor any of their staffers, at this meeting. One should ask them why they were not there. How can this issue not be important enough to merit their time?

Once I am elected to the House of Representatives, I will make issues of this nature a priority to ensure that these decisions are made with the interest of Florida’s Space Coast in mind, not just those in Washington DC.

Clint Curtis

Clint Curtis for Congress
Clint's blog
Clint's ActBlue page
FL-24 2008 Race Tracker Wiki

DiMaio v. Democratic National Committee:

The Democratic National Committee is violating the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment by allowing only four states to hold caucuses or primaries before the first Tuesday in February, a Florida attorney argued March 17, 2008 before a federal appeals court.

Attorney Michael Steinberg filed suit in August on behalf of Democratic Party activist Victor DiMaio. The suit came after the DNC said it would not seat Florida delegates at the national convention because the state party defied party rules and scheduled its primary for January 29.