Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Good News for Barack Obama in WaPo ABC News Poll

There is some really great news for the Obama campaign in today's Washington Post / ABC News Poll. Yes, even despite the not so very thrilling headline in the WaPo - "Poll Finds Independent Voters Split Between McCain, Obama", the numbers inside the poll itself tell a much different story.

OK, I admit, I'm a bit of a geek. And a Pol. So what does a geek and a Pol do when we can get our hands on a poll? We dig deep to see what the thing really has to say. The horse race among all those polled has Obama up 6 at 48 to 42. Among registered voters, its closer at 49 to 45. Those numbers are certainly better for Obama than McCain, but they aren't really anything to write home about. Particularly as the WaPo notes:

At this point four years ago, Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry held identical leads over President Bush among all adults and among registered voters.

We all remember how that turned out. Polls really are just snapshots in time. And the election is still a relatively long way away.

So what's the really good news for the Obama campaign in this poll? The WaPo / ABC News poll also asked this question:

Would you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else?

For Barack Obama, fully 72% of his voters said they were definitely voting for Obama. But 69% of McCain's voters said the same about him. But here it is: Out of the 31% of McCains' voters who could possibly change their minds, 17%, nearly 1 in 5, say there is a GOOD chance of changing their mind. The comparable number for Obama is only 7%, or less than one in 10.

The reason this is such good news is that political operatives are always looking for those voters who are persuadable. That's the real point at which all that advertising money being spent is aimed. Is to find and convince those people who are persuadable to make up their mind in favor of our candidate.

That 10 point spread in persuadables in favor of Obama is a very happy place for a campaign to be.

1 comment:

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