Snatching Defeat From the Jaws of Victory

For a long time now, I have been saying that the stars are aligned for the Democrats to win the White House in 2008. All we have to do is to avoid shooting ourselves in the foot. Right about now, I feel like I am picking some of Dick Cheney's buck shot out of my toes.

This is not what we should be focusing our attention on. In a week where the Republicans are imploding (Alberto Gonzales and Larry Craig resign, John Warner retires), Dems should be standing back and let the Republicans continue to hang themselves. Instead we are getting headlines like this:

Democrats boycott Florida race

Here I have been trying to argue that what matters most is that Floridians voices will be heard. Now the Democratic candidates have come out and said that they won't be listening. Here is what John Edwards (who I have been supporting) has to say:

"Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina need to be first because in these states ideas count, not just money. These are places where voters get to look the candidate in the eye and measure their policies, ideas, and integrity."

What we have been arguing all along is that Florida voters are hungry for a chance to:

look the candidate in the eye and measure their policies, ideas, and integrity

at a time when it still matters in the nomination process. Floridians with money have long had that opportunity. Now we were going to have the same chance to measure the candidates as Iowa and New Hampshire have had. And we think that we probably could do a better job picking the Democratic nominee that Iowa and New Hampshire have done.

Here is a "history lesson" that has been circulated among Florida's Democratic leaders:

Of the last nine Presidential elections in which the Democratic candidate was chosen by the current primary system (excluding 1996 when President Clinton faced no real opposition in the primary), our candidate has only twice been elected President. Those candidates, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992, both lost the Iowa Caucuses. Clinton lost the New Hampshire primary as well.

Also, the Iowa Caucus has picked a loser every time since it came to
prominence in 1972. Since 1952, the New Hampshire Primary has only picked one Democratic President when the nomination was contested.

So what do we do now? I say it is about time to start using our influence on the candidates campaigns. Let's pick up the drumbeat to get these candidates to change their minds and reject this lunacy of boycotting Florida.

If we are ever going to Blog Florida Blue , now is the time to start.

John Edwards 2008 ???

John Edwards announced his candidacy for President of the United States in New Orleans today. To paraphrase a line from my favorite movie, Casablanca, "I'm shocked, shocked to hear there is campaigning going on here. And here are your delegates, Senator." Edwards has been practicallyliving in Iowa for the past two years. It has been paying off for him. He has been leading the polls there until being tied by Barack Obamain the most recent poll.

The line up of Democratic primaries in 2008 is very much in John Edwards favor. He is well positioned to win Iowa and Nevada. He need not worry so much about New Hampshire, but must do well in South Carolina. Winning 3 out of the 4 first contests in 2008 would make Edwards the clear favorite for the 2008 nomination. That kind of success potential should give Edwards a real leg up in the money primary as well.

The Edwards message is one that he has been honing for the past 3 years. His "two Americas" message has been reinforced by his One America PAC. He has already put a video up on >YouTubeand live blogged at DailyKostoday. He is doing a Live on Line Town Hall Meeting tonight, from, you guessed it, Des Moines,Iowa. If this is not a nod to Time Magazine's Person of the Year, you, I don't think we'll ever see one.

I was leaning towards former Virginia Governor Mark Warner until he took himself out of the running before the 2006 mid term elections. Since then, I have been sitting back trying to see if someone will really grab my attention. In 2003, I was intensely curious about Howard Dean. But when it became clear that Bob Graham was going to run, there was no question in my mind who I was going to support.

There are still a few more days in 2006 left. The question now is, do I become a 2006 supporter of (fill in the blank), or do I stay on the sidelines watching the game unfold? It had been my intention to wait a while to see what developed. But I have submitted a question to the Edwards Town Hall meeting tonight. I asked the same question of John Kerry in March of 2003. There is no way that Edwards can fail to give a better answer than Kerry gave, but I am going to reserve judgement until I get an answer to my question:

Senator, the Republicans win because they win a solid South. How do you
plan to win in the South?

Stay tuned.