Latest Florida Mason-Dixon Poll

The latest Mason-Dixon poll has the top tier Republican presidential candidates beating Hillary Clinton in the Florida general ection.

Giuliani - 50
Clinton - 43

Romney - 46
Clinton - 45

Thompson - 48
Clinton - 44

The poll shows one in five voters will not vote for a Democrat because of the candidate boycott and the DNC stripping Florida of delegates. Ouch.

Let's All Take a Deep Breath

The recent decision by the Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Committee to possibly strip Florida of all its delegates to the Democratic National Convention has certainly created a stir. The newspapers and the blogs are just a Buzz with all sorts of sky is falling articles.

I propose we just all back away from the keyboard and take a deep breath. There, doesn't that feel better? Now let's talk about what's really important in this whole primary mess. Florida's Democratic voters are going to vote in a Presidential Preference Primary on January 29th. This is going to occur before the nomination is a done deal. Florida 's Democratic voices will be heard in a significant way.

The last time Florida Dems were in a position to make a significant impact on the presidential nominee selection process was in the 1992 cycle. At the Florida Democratic Party Convention, a little known hick Governor from Arkansas won a straw poll. Straw polls are otherwise known as "officially meaningless beauty contests" in the MSM. Bill Clinton took that straw poll victory and ran all the way to the White House with it. Anybody want to ask Bill if he thought it was a "meaningless beauty contest"?

So, the good news is that Florida's Democrats will have a significant voice in the selection of the Democratic nominee for President. Delegates have nothing to do with it. The candidates do not go to Iowa and New Hampshire for the delegates. They go for the momentum that can be captured from good showings. Delegates or no, the candidates this cycle will kill for the momentum going into February 5th that an impressive showing in Florida will create. The rest of this whole fight about delegates is officially meaningless.


Let's take a closer look at exactly what happened this weekend in Washington and what it all really means - or doesn't. From the New York Times:

The Democratic National Committee ... voted Saturday to refuse to seat any Florida Democrat at the Democratic presidential convention in 2008 if the state party did not delay the date of its 2008 primary to conform to the party’s nominating calendar.

The committee gave Florida Democrats 30 days to propose a primary date that conformed with Democratic rules prohibiting all but four states from holding their primaries or caucuses before Feb. 5.

So, from the newspaper of record, that's what happened. The DNC "gave Florida Democrats 30 days" to conform to the party's nominating calendar rules. That's what happened - we got yet another 30 day extension to submit a delegate selection plan which conforms to the Party's rules. Nothing more, nothing less. So, let's make this deep breath number two.

Why is the DNC taking such a seemingly hard line? How about because the presidential primary system is a friggin' mess. The DNC spent considerable time and energy attempting to retool the primary process for this cycle. In belated recognition that perhaps Iowa and New Hampshire do not really represent America and the Democratic Party well, the DNC added Nevada caucuses and a South Carolina primary to the early state selection process. They then told everybody else they could not go before February 5th.

So what happened to all these carefully laid plans? Two things. First, this election cycle is the first since Herbert Hoover was elected that does not feature a sitting President or Vice President from one party or the other. In other words, we have a truly wide open race in both parties.

Second, the frustration with the present primary system reached the boiling point all over the country. Despite the delegate increase incentives in the Democratic Party, almost every state has moved their primary up to February 5th. OK, it only seems like it, but it is not far from the truth.

Florida's Republican dominated Legislature, with it's new Vice President possibility touted Republican Governor decided to go one better. The Florida Legislature passed a bill, and the Republican Governor signed it into law, setting January 29th as the date for the Presidential Preference Primary here in Florida. Yep, setting election dates is the job of the state legislature here in Florida, not the political parties.

Now Adam Smith is going to say that a Democrat introduced the bill moving the primary up to January 29. Ding, ding, ding. Give Adam the boobie prize. Yes, the Republican leadership in the legislature did find a dumber than a box of rocks freshman Democratic Senator to introduce the bill. I hope he got what they promised him. Adam, how about having your crack research team check out how many Democratic sponsored bills that did not have the full support of the Republican Leadership even got a Committee hearing? Let's put that red herring to rest. This was a Republican bill all the way.

But, but, but all the Dem legislators voted for this bill. Well, yeah. Included in the final bill was a provision to give the voters of Florida a voter verifiable paper ballot. This had to be about the number one priority of Democrats, to know that their votes are going to count. No Dem was going to vote against that. What, you think all Republicans are stupid? Let's make this deep breath number three.

Why is the DNC taking such a seemingly hard line on this issue? Not all the states are done tinkering with their primary dates yet. From the New York Times:

Committee members made it clear that they wanted to send a message to any state that might be looking to change its primary; the vote came as Michigan leaders are looking to move that state’s primary to Jan. 15.

The DNC action was as much about scaring Michigan off of these plans as it was about Florida. The DNC is hoping that come the end of September, Michigan will have decided it is too late to move their primary up into January.

Now for those of you who actually are worried about their delegate credentials , um , er, disfranchising the voters, there is this from the Florida Democratic Party:

(FDP Chair Karen)Thurman suggested the penalties may be meaningless because the winning presidential nominee "will make the final decision on whether there are delegates or not.''

That's right. Under DNC rules, the presumptive nominee will take control of the Democratic National Convention, including the Credentials Committee. So Florida Dems will vote on January 29th in a binding Presidential Preference Primary. At the end of the day, the presumptive nominee will have the final say on the seating of delegates.

So, get your favorite credentials holding lanyard out of moth balls. Quit bitching at each other. Take a deep breath and help us

The Primary Question

There has been a tremendous amount of talk about what is going to happen with the Florida Presidential Primary now scheduled for January 29th. This was the subject of a meeting of the state's DNC members Friday night at the JJ and of both the state Executive Committee and Central Committee meetings on Sunday morning.

The meeting participants were faced with this question. They had received extensions from the DNC for submission of the FDP's Delegate Selection Plan. However, the DNC refused to grant an extension beyond June 15th. So the question was, what would the Delegate Selection Plan have to say about the January 29th primary?

The Florida DNC members ultimately came up with a set of principles to use to evaluate the question. The first was to encourage maximum participation of Democratic voters. That means a primary. Any type of caucus or other mechanism would likely draw only a small fraction of what a primary would draw. The second principle was that Florida Democrats votes should count. Period.

As reported in the St. Petersburg Times:

"Florida Democrats definitely do not want to be the people that decide, your vote doesn't count," said Arlin Briley, vice chairman of the Pinellas Democratic Party, echoing Democrat after Democrat attending the event. "We're in a spot, and we have to let the chips fall where they will and honor the people's vote."

Florida Senator Bill Nelson is also quoted by the Times:

Florida's top Democratic elected officials, Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson oppose making the Jan. 29 election nonbinding, but it's unclear whether DNC chairman Dean has any leeway to bend his party rules and avoid punishing Florida Democrats for the early primary.

"He better," Nelson said Saturday. "I have talked to him and said, 'Don't forget the goal, and the goal is to do well in Florida in November. The last thing you want to do is have the perception that you're taking away people's right to vote and putting in a smoke-filled-room caucus.'"

Under these circumstances the Florida Democratic Party decided to submit their Delegate Selection Plan to the DNC with the January 29th primary as binding on the allocation of delegates to candidates. The plan must be submitted to the DNC on June 15th. There will then be a 30 day comment period. After that, the DNC will decide what to do.

Here is the statement from the DNC upon hearing this news from Florida:

The DNC will enforce the rules as passed by its 447 members in August 2006. Until the Florida State Democratic Party formally submits its plan and we've had the opportunity to review that submission, we will not speculate further.

Howard Dean speaking in New Hampshire was quoted by the Times:

"Their primary essentially won't count,'' he said of Florida. "Anybody who campaigns in Florida is ineligible for delegates." By moving to Jan. 29, he said, Florida Democrats "essentially converted their primary to a straw poll."

Now for a dose of reality. At this point the DNC is like the boy with his finger in the dike. Other states (Michigan, for example) looking to move up are watching what the DNC is going to do about Florida. If the DNC can hang on long enough, these other states will have passed their window of opportunity to move up. At that point, the DNC will be able to say to Florida: OK, you got screwed by the Republican legislature. We don't like it, but we are going to accept your plan. That way, the DNC doesn't have to tell Florida Dems their votes won't count.

If that doesn't happen, here is another reality check. The Democratic nominee ultimately controls the Democratic National Convention. No Democratic nominee looking to win Florida in the general election could possibly fail to seat a Florida delegation at the convention. Here is the Times again, quoting DNC member Jon Ausman of Tallahassee :

once a presidential candidate receives a majority of the delegates, I believe Florida is home free.

I'd be hard pressed to argue with that assessment.

Dr. Dean - Let Our Votes Count

Blog Florida Blue


Florida Governor Charlie Crist today signed an elections reform bill that moves Florida's Presidential Preference Primary up to January 29th in 2008. This puts the Florida Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee on a collision course. DNC primary rules call for draconian penalties for any state that moves its primary up before February 5th. Potentially, Florida could lose all of its delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

I have blogged about this before. The first time was last November on DailyKos. More recently, I blogged about the Florida Primary Conspiracy Theory, a dubious concept at best. I have also blogged about How to Have Our Primary Cake and Eat It Too. This laid out how the FDP could avoid delegate penalties from the DNC. The technique would be to declare the January 29th primary non-binding. This would then require the FDP to hold a caucus at a later date to actually select and apportion the convention delegates. It would also have the unfortunate effect of the the Florida Democratic Party telling its members that their votes on January 29th wouldn't count.

I have come to the conclusion that this is not a cake I want to eat. Our Republican dominated state legislature did this to us. Make no mistake here, though. Many Dem legislators were just as happy to move up in the primary schedule. I know I was, and continue to be. We are the largest swing state in the country. We have more electoral votes at stake than the states going before us combined. We are much more diverse than any state going before us in this process. Floridians deserve to have their voices heard as part of the presidential nominating process.

Our own state party should not be put in the position of telling us our primary votes are not going to count. Not in Florida of all places. We have a hard enough time getting our votes to count here as it is. (Although the bill that Gov. Crist signed today also does away with touch screen voting machines (almost entirely) and provides us with a voter verifiable paper trail.) No , the state party should not put us in that position.

That puts the ball squarely in your court, Dr. Dean. As Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, your position on this dilemma counts for a great deal. Do you really want to tell Florida Democrats, of all people, that their votes won't count? After all, this was done to us by the Republican controlled Florida Legislature. The Dems couldn't have stopped this if they had wanted to. Speaking of Florida Democrats, Dr. Dean, you do recall how important their support was in your ascendancy to the Chairmanship, don't you? The early support from the Florida delegation to the DNC really got the ball rolling for you.

But, let's just get back to the basic issue here. There will be a presidential primary in Florida on January 29th. It is now the law of this state. The Democratic candidates are going to campaign here. This state supplies too much money, and holds too many electoral votes for the candidates to ignore us. The only remaining question is this:

Doctor Dean, are you going to let our votes count?

Blog Florida Blue