Yearly Kos

Howard Dean speaks at Yearly Kos and asks the netroots to lobby to improve voting machines.

Dean: “This is not a one day or one election struggle. This is something we have to do every single day for the rest of our lives… And when we get knocked down, we’re going to stand up again for the core principles of America, because America was knocked down by the far-right wing of the Republican Party in the last eight years. And by God, we’re going to get up and recover and stand up for what we used to stand up for. We are going to regain the moral leadership that made America a great country. And we are going to live again in America and stand up and lead the world to the promised land.”

Dean gets the crowd going talking about forcing Republicans to vote on Iraq.

Update: Jill Filipovic is liveblogging a Q and A session with Democratic presidential candidates at YK.

Update: Jill reports that Mike Gravel's tax plan bombed with the crowd.

Sen. Gravel was just asked about his tax structure, which would eliminate the IRS and institute a 23 percent sales and service tax. Joan asks him how low-income people are going to survive waiting for their rebate check every month.

Gravel responds that “you need to know how politics works.” Everyone hisses. He says not to worry about the Fair Tax, because it will never pass Congress. He discusses the corruption and the structural flaws in Congress. “The answer is with you, the American people, to acquire law-making power. That is where the power lies.”

Gravel's national sales tax program is horrible.

Update: Amanda Marcotte reports that Hillary Clinton got slammed by Edwards and Obama.

Jill and I were sitting together at the Presidential forum, and she liveblogged the whole thing. Check it out. Hillary Clinton got the worst of it, I think, because Edwards and Obama tagged her for taking money from Washington lobbyists and she couldn’t squirm out of it. That said, I felt that her first attempt to answer accusations about taking lobbyist money was honest and reasonable—she feels the system puts you in this situation and that it’s hardly a singular, personal failing. Fair enough, but in the end, she had a hard time convincing the admittedly tough crowd at Yearly Kos that she was sincere in wishing that it could be different. Then she blew it completely by denying that the money lobbyists spend has the amount of influence that it does, giving Edwards and Obama a chance to pounce and point out what’s obvious—lobbyists would not spend billions of dollars if they weren’t buying influence.

It's amazing how Hillary always tries to say something to please everyone and ends up alienating all.

Update: It gets better. Ezra Klein has a great take on the crowd's reaction to Hillary's lobbying money defense. This is comical.

Hillary Clinton on Edwards' challenge to stop taking lobbyist money: "I certainly think thats a position Sen, Edwards has taken." Yes, indeed it is. She then says that "I've been in politics for 35-years, and I think it's silly for anyone to think that money impacts my positions." The crowd laughs at her then boos.

Hillary's a horrible candidate. Having a great campaign staff and famous last name doesn't hide it. There are so many women in the Democratic Party more worthy of the attention Hillary is receiving.

The Primary Question

There has been a tremendous amount of talk about what is going to happen with the Florida Presidential Primary now scheduled for January 29th. This was the subject of a meeting of the state's DNC members Friday night at the JJ and of both the state Executive Committee and Central Committee meetings on Sunday morning.

The meeting participants were faced with this question. They had received extensions from the DNC for submission of the FDP's Delegate Selection Plan. However, the DNC refused to grant an extension beyond June 15th. So the question was, what would the Delegate Selection Plan have to say about the January 29th primary?

The Florida DNC members ultimately came up with a set of principles to use to evaluate the question. The first was to encourage maximum participation of Democratic voters. That means a primary. Any type of caucus or other mechanism would likely draw only a small fraction of what a primary would draw. The second principle was that Florida Democrats votes should count. Period.

As reported in the St. Petersburg Times:

"Florida Democrats definitely do not want to be the people that decide, your vote doesn't count," said Arlin Briley, vice chairman of the Pinellas Democratic Party, echoing Democrat after Democrat attending the event. "We're in a spot, and we have to let the chips fall where they will and honor the people's vote."

Florida Senator Bill Nelson is also quoted by the Times:

Florida's top Democratic elected officials, Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson oppose making the Jan. 29 election nonbinding, but it's unclear whether DNC chairman Dean has any leeway to bend his party rules and avoid punishing Florida Democrats for the early primary.

"He better," Nelson said Saturday. "I have talked to him and said, 'Don't forget the goal, and the goal is to do well in Florida in November. The last thing you want to do is have the perception that you're taking away people's right to vote and putting in a smoke-filled-room caucus.'"

Under these circumstances the Florida Democratic Party decided to submit their Delegate Selection Plan to the DNC with the January 29th primary as binding on the allocation of delegates to candidates. The plan must be submitted to the DNC on June 15th. There will then be a 30 day comment period. After that, the DNC will decide what to do.

Here is the statement from the DNC upon hearing this news from Florida:

The DNC will enforce the rules as passed by its 447 members in August 2006. Until the Florida State Democratic Party formally submits its plan and we've had the opportunity to review that submission, we will not speculate further.

Howard Dean speaking in New Hampshire was quoted by the Times:

"Their primary essentially won't count,'' he said of Florida. "Anybody who campaigns in Florida is ineligible for delegates." By moving to Jan. 29, he said, Florida Democrats "essentially converted their primary to a straw poll."

Now for a dose of reality. At this point the DNC is like the boy with his finger in the dike. Other states (Michigan, for example) looking to move up are watching what the DNC is going to do about Florida. If the DNC can hang on long enough, these other states will have passed their window of opportunity to move up. At that point, the DNC will be able to say to Florida: OK, you got screwed by the Republican legislature. We don't like it, but we are going to accept your plan. That way, the DNC doesn't have to tell Florida Dems their votes won't count.

If that doesn't happen, here is another reality check. The Democratic nominee ultimately controls the Democratic National Convention. No Democratic nominee looking to win Florida in the general election could possibly fail to seat a Florida delegation at the convention. Here is the Times again, quoting DNC member Jon Ausman of Tallahassee :

once a presidential candidate receives a majority of the delegates, I believe Florida is home free.

I'd be hard pressed to argue with that assessment.

Dr. Dean - Let Our Votes Count

Blog Florida Blue


Florida Governor Charlie Crist today signed an elections reform bill that moves Florida's Presidential Preference Primary up to January 29th in 2008. This puts the Florida Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee on a collision course. DNC primary rules call for draconian penalties for any state that moves its primary up before February 5th. Potentially, Florida could lose all of its delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

I have blogged about this before. The first time was last November on DailyKos. More recently, I blogged about the Florida Primary Conspiracy Theory, a dubious concept at best. I have also blogged about How to Have Our Primary Cake and Eat It Too. This laid out how the FDP could avoid delegate penalties from the DNC. The technique would be to declare the January 29th primary non-binding. This would then require the FDP to hold a caucus at a later date to actually select and apportion the convention delegates. It would also have the unfortunate effect of the the Florida Democratic Party telling its members that their votes on January 29th wouldn't count.

I have come to the conclusion that this is not a cake I want to eat. Our Republican dominated state legislature did this to us. Make no mistake here, though. Many Dem legislators were just as happy to move up in the primary schedule. I know I was, and continue to be. We are the largest swing state in the country. We have more electoral votes at stake than the states going before us combined. We are much more diverse than any state going before us in this process. Floridians deserve to have their voices heard as part of the presidential nominating process.

Our own state party should not be put in the position of telling us our primary votes are not going to count. Not in Florida of all places. We have a hard enough time getting our votes to count here as it is. (Although the bill that Gov. Crist signed today also does away with touch screen voting machines (almost entirely) and provides us with a voter verifiable paper trail.) No , the state party should not put us in that position.

That puts the ball squarely in your court, Dr. Dean. As Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, your position on this dilemma counts for a great deal. Do you really want to tell Florida Democrats, of all people, that their votes won't count? After all, this was done to us by the Republican controlled Florida Legislature. The Dems couldn't have stopped this if they had wanted to. Speaking of Florida Democrats, Dr. Dean, you do recall how important their support was in your ascendancy to the Chairmanship, don't you? The early support from the Florida delegation to the DNC really got the ball rolling for you.

But, let's just get back to the basic issue here. There will be a presidential primary in Florida on January 29th. It is now the law of this state. The Democratic candidates are going to campaign here. This state supplies too much money, and holds too many electoral votes for the candidates to ignore us. The only remaining question is this:

Doctor Dean, are you going to let our votes count?

Blog Florida Blue

Florida Primary Conspiracy Theory?

Blog Florida Blue

Matt Towery of the Florida Times-Union in Jacksonville has written a story titled Will Howard Dean step in GOP's Florida primary trap? He buys into the theory that moving Florida's Presidential Preference Primary to January 29th is part of some Machiavellian plot by the Florida Republican Party. Here's a sample:

The Republicans know the DNC is governed by hard-nosed and inflexible leaders who have managed to botch numerous presidential campaigns in recent years. Knowing that Dean likely will attempt to make a Jan. 29 Democratic primary meaningless, Republicans recognized the opportunity to be the only game in town.

But wait, it gets better. Towery displays his stunning knowledge of Florida election law thusly:

How does a party reeling from a loss of independent voters hope to win back those independents in Florida, the biggest state still up for grabs in the presidential election?

By holding its primary in a situation where independent voters can only vote Republican if they want their votes to count.

Here is Florida Statute 101.021 :

In a primary election a qualified elector is entitled to vote the official primary election ballot of the political party designated in the elector's registration, and no other. It is unlawful for any elector to vote in a primary for any candidate running for nomination from a party other than that in which such elector is registered.

The only way an independent voter can vote in a primary election is to change their registration from independent (or technically No Party Affiliation) to one of the political parties. A cursory review of voter turnout statistics reveals that there is no substantial evidence of massive voter registration changes and voting in primary elections by Florida's independent voters.

This kind of thing makes it hard to give credence to anything else Mr. Towery has to say on this matter. Having said all that, the Florida Legislature did put the Florida Democratic Party in a box. But that is the point, isn't it? This was an act of the Florida Legislature, not the Florida Democratic Party. Does it seem just to penalize Florida Democrats for the act of the Republican dominated Florida Legislature?

Doctor Dean, now is the time to remember how important the Florida Democratic Party was to your gaining the DNC Chair. Now is the time to ensure that the votes of Florida Democrats, of all people, get counted and counted fairly.

And, oh, bye the way, maybe now is the time to get that 50 state strategy cranked up in Florida so we are not put in this position by a Republican dominated Florida Legislature again.

Blog Florida Blue

Candidate Review Wednesday: Overview

This time 4 years ago, I was firmly committed to Florida's favorite son, my former boss, Senator and former Florida Governor Bob Graham. I had taken a look at Howard Dean and liked what I saw. I was not enamored of John Kerry (more on that later) and I thought John Edwards suffered from premature ejaculation (er, uh, candidacy).

This cycle, I am much more conflicted. There is not one candidate who stands head and shoulders above everyone else, in my opinion. Maybe the best candidate isn't even in the race. Maybe the best candidate is ineligible to run again. There are at least two candidates who I would be equally happy to have as my party's nominee. This is the embarrassment of riches we seem to be suffering this year.

Today, I am launching a series of diaries to try and get the fencepost out of my ass. This series is going to be a little bit like examining my navel, something I have successfully avoided doing to this point in my life for the most part. I hope at the end of the day to have developed a coherent reason to support one candidate over all the others.




There are a couple of caveats I should make here. I am going to support the Democratic nominee. Period.

I want to become a paid employee of, or consultant to, the campaign I end up choosing to support. I could repeat my pattern from the last presidential cycle and spend my energy on the Congressional level. That happened after my first choice, Bob Graham, decided he couldn't sustain a viable campaign. This cycle though, I hope I wind up catching on with the ultimate nominee.

There are two top level criteria I am going to use to evaluate the candidates. The first is their ability to win the nomination. The second is their ability to win the general election. You can't have one without the other. That's what happened to Howard Dean in Iowa last cycle. Iowans came to the conclusion that Dean could not win the general. They also came to the mistaken conclusion that John Kerry could, so what do they know?

In my attempts to evaluate candidates chances to win the nomination, I am going to look at these factors:

• Values projected in the Message
• Stance on issues
• Fundraising ability
• Staff competence
• Primary strategy
• Does this candidate make me feel it?

I am going to go back to square one and do my own research on all these factors. I am a devotee of values based decision making, so I am going to start with that navel gazing thing. I am going to have to come up with a set of criteria to evaluate how each candidate's message resonates with my values (That's the first and the last criteria on the list above.) Those criteria are, by their nature, subjective. The other criteria are more objective in nature. At the end of the day, it is going to come down to my gut feeling as to which candidate makes me feel it more.

That's how I intend to proceed. It should be an interesting journey.

John Edwards 2008 ???

John Edwards announced his candidacy for President of the United States in New Orleans today. To paraphrase a line from my favorite movie, Casablanca, "I'm shocked, shocked to hear there is campaigning going on here. And here are your delegates, Senator." Edwards has been practicallyliving in Iowa for the past two years. It has been paying off for him. He has been leading the polls there until being tied by Barack Obamain the most recent poll.

The line up of Democratic primaries in 2008 is very much in John Edwards favor. He is well positioned to win Iowa and Nevada. He need not worry so much about New Hampshire, but must do well in South Carolina. Winning 3 out of the 4 first contests in 2008 would make Edwards the clear favorite for the 2008 nomination. That kind of success potential should give Edwards a real leg up in the money primary as well.

The Edwards message is one that he has been honing for the past 3 years. His "two Americas" message has been reinforced by his One America PAC. He has already put a video up on >YouTubeand live blogged at DailyKostoday. He is doing a Live on Line Town Hall Meeting tonight, from, you guessed it, Des Moines,Iowa. If this is not a nod to Time Magazine's Person of the Year, you, I don't think we'll ever see one.

I was leaning towards former Virginia Governor Mark Warner until he took himself out of the running before the 2006 mid term elections. Since then, I have been sitting back trying to see if someone will really grab my attention. In 2003, I was intensely curious about Howard Dean. But when it became clear that Bob Graham was going to run, there was no question in my mind who I was going to support.

There are still a few more days in 2006 left. The question now is, do I become a 2006 supporter of (fill in the blank), or do I stay on the sidelines watching the game unfold? It had been my intention to wait a while to see what developed. But I have submitted a question to the Edwards Town Hall meeting tonight. I asked the same question of John Kerry in March of 2003. There is no way that Edwards can fail to give a better answer than Kerry gave, but I am going to reserve judgement until I get an answer to my question:

Senator, the Republicans win because they win a solid South. How do you
plan to win in the South?

Stay tuned.